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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a time when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable comeback victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had known him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd