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Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."