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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It often functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or simply the most shocking shock.

But the current field is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions falling away and recent strugglers improving together. In an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against several other elite coaches.

This is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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